Stone's Ongoing Meteorological Predictions and Informational Whatnot

The polar jet from about noon today. This is what's pushing the L from the Great Lakes to here. The winds up at 300 mb are flowing fast -- yellow is fast, red is faster -- around the polar vortex -- a permanent cyclone around the Arctic -- that's slipped south into Canada, pushing the jet south into the northern US, right across the G Lakes, heading our way. That sharp left (north) turn just off the coast of NE US -- my neighborhood -- relates to the cyclonic spin over the Gulf of Maine that the deep trough is going to bomb out of.

That's a new meteorological term: bombogenesis -- the explosive, very fast emergence of a weather bomb. The bigger the pressure gradient between H and L (in mB), the bigger the bomb.

Bigga badda boom.

 

Storm track has shifted some, and projected snow totals for Maine decreased. (Alright by me.) This meteorologist is predicting most areas will see 18" - 24", with some areas up to 30". But the wind will be so high (for days) that drifting will make accurate totals impossible.

 

It's nearly 1 pm on Monday. Aside from a few hours respite yesterday afternoon/evening just before the nor'easter began -- which I stayed up most of the night watching -- it's been snowing continuously since Saturday morning.

This one's been pretty epic. Because of drifting, it's impossible to say how much snow we've gotten just from this storm alone, but the snowblower posts marking the sidewalk out back that normally stick up about 3.5' are only exposed by about a foot. I'm guessing 24" since Saturday morning. Winds have been pretty intense.

 

Noon report from Bangor Daily News

"Forecasters say this will be the biggest snowstorm we’ve seen so far this winter, and it’s dumping plenty of fresh powder out there. Authorities advise you to stay home unless you must absolutely leave home. Now would be a good time to bundle up and cozy up with a hot beverage. We’ll keep you updated on the latest developments as the blizzard sweeps across the state today.

As of Monday morning, a dozen weather stations around the state reported total snowfall of more than 20 inches, as more snow was in store for Maine and the Northeast Monday afternoon.

The numbers reflect the latest information from the National Weather Service, though some areas were not updated early Monday. Bangor, for instance, received around a foot of snow overnight, but the latest report to the National Weather Service reflects snowfall at around midnight."

 

We got a couple of feet here. It is still spitting. I love those news reports. STAY HOME! OMG ITS FN CHAOS! Lol. The rest of the world thinks we are in some kind of disaster. This is the lightest fluffiest powder I have seen in a while. Hence the blizardlike effect everytime the wind blows. I just shoveled without gloves on in a sweatshirt, so whatever the temperature is claimed to be where I am, it is closer to °30 F. And as usual everyone is driving around having a blast because lets face it, if you cant drive in the snow, Maine is not the place for you. All the stores are still open. Nothing to see here. As a side note if you are into skiing and you like fresh powder, now is the time if ever!

 

@Stone, who do you listen/watch for weather?
I listen to Russ Merley, because of the whole WTOS connection.

 

LOL. Yeah, same here. I only read the media versions to get the meteorological story -- temps, totals, tracking, etc -- not the sociological component. I always figured the "OMG it's driving chaos, stay off the roads!" part was to keep those from BOS and NYC off the roads so Mainers who actually know how to drive in it will have the roads to themselves.

I love it here. Totally love it. Love the landscapes, the woods, the wilderness just north of here, the people, the culture -- everything. Mainers are some of the heartiest, toughest people I've met in the US. They remind me a lot of ranchers in outback NM or eastern OR.

I'm "away", so can't call myself Mainer. I call most of them from away "Mainees", and myself and a few others Maineacs.

It's still snowing here, and reportedly we may get another foot before night fall. (And another storm on Wednesday could bring another foot.) The biggest problem here for anyone -- including drivers -- is not the snow but the wind. Visibility is pretty bad. I hope at least people on the roads (which I can't see from my apartment, thankfully) are slowing down and being responsible.

I'm planning to go for a long walk a bit later. Can't wait to see what this feels like walking in it.

My kingdom for a pair of snowshoes.

 

I'll check him out. I don't have a radio, but he probably streams it.

My main weather source is a close friend and associate that lives near me. He's a member of my organization. At 70, he's a semi-retired professional meteorologist who did his MS in meteorology while in the navy, then served as meteorologist on an aircraft carrier. You've gotta be good if you're going to OK launching aircraft off a carrier!

After navy, he went corporate in Mass (he's originally from Jersey), but hated it, so he and his wife moved up here, bought land, built an off the grid house (all solar and wood), and grow most of their own food. He does a daily weather forecast via email for friends, farmers, forestry people, fishermen, hunters -- who ever needs good, reliable forecasting. And he puts out up to two updates during the day, especially during the approach of storms. He's the best by far I've ever known, and I've been watching weather forecasts closely since I was a kid (dad worked outside, and was a fireman).

His forecasts are extremely thorough -- summary out to ten days up front, then a multi-paragraph analysis of the surface map, then a summary of the jet stream map (300 mb). A lot of the stuff I post here -- especially the colorful jet stream maps -- are from him. I've also taken his multiweek Weather 101 course that he's taught publicly for decades. (He was a part time high school teacher, and he's done public seminars. He and I are putting together a climate/weather seminar for regionals.)

From his course, I've got a much better understanding of weather, though am still a total novice. We hope to get some funding to hire an animator / modeler to construct some 3D teaching models. I'm an ecologist (mostly), and it's easy to see what's happening in a terrestrial ecosystem like a forest. I can visualize the real thing, and even see abstractly a lot of the processes -- like nutrient cycling and energy flow. But trying to visualize a very complex, highly dynamic atmosphere -- even just the bottom layer (troposphere) with jet streams, L and H, stationary and occluded fronts, etc, is really tough for me -- and most, I think.

He looks at all the data (from surface up to 150 mb) on T, P, wind vectors, etc, etc and can see -- visually see in his mind -- what's going on up there. Add his field knowledge of clouds -- which is very impressive -- and he's a master.

He was trained in the old ways, pre-computer, but then trained again with the new models. So he uses both. He says he looks at the current models, considers what they're telling him, but then uses his knowledge of raw data developed by experiences over decades to revise his forecasts. And he often gets it more right than the models do!

He's got clients all over Maine -- even though he's up here in the Bangor latitudes. His service is ridiculously inexpensive. Let me know if you'd like to see a sample. I can hook you up.

 

I hate to spoil the surprise. .........It feels like.......
It sucks. Its about nuts deep in the low spots.




I have a friend who is from "away". He has been here 15 years or so. He starts complaining every fall and stops for 5 min only to start again the next fall. Threatens to move every 15 minutes. He complains about the weather. He complains about the lack of "whole foods" and environmentally friendly stuff. He lives literally next door to a farmer who sells everything from vegetables to eggs and even raises cattle that is sold at the local butcher shop. Lol.
Long story short, everyone loves it here. Even if they can not admit it.


Russ did/does wmtw weather.

 

Hahaha ... yeah, I expect that.

I'm only about 100 m from a snowmobile trail (#82 that runs all the way from NH to New Brunswick), so I'm hoping the sleds are already on it. I'd be surprised if not. If so, I'm golden -- snowshoes or not.

 

How did the death march go? Apparently mother nature has another foot of white crap for ya today.

 

Death march. Hahaha! Had I taken the woods w/o snowshoes**, it'd have been that! Hell, I could even get to the woods the drifts in the open areas were so deep. (** A friend is going to loan me a pair of snowshoes soon as he comes to town from pretty nearby.)

So on Monday, I took the highway -- Rt 6 -- for a walk. Normally a fairly well used road, on Monday afternoon, it was very little used. I saw about 3 dozen vehicles during the 2 hours I was out, and most were plows. All kindly gave me wide berth for walking. For part of it, I was on a partly plowed side road -- nice exploration of my new neighborhood. Amazingly beautiful walking given the low traffic. I actually shot a video of the walk that I'll post soon.

Yesterday, I managed to stomp out a trail across the heavily drifted side field to the snowmobile trail, a spur trail for 82. Took me about half an hour to stomp over to it -- but now I've got a "trail" that will be useful even after the 6 - 10" or so we'll see today (such is the forecast; heavier south of here -- up to 1.5'). Once I got to the spur trail, it was easy walking. Some powder on top of well packed snow, so I only sank in 4 - 8" with each step. Not bad at all. Very comfortable. And so beautiful. After about 300 m, I arrived a the very well groomed/plowed 82, and walking from there was super easy. The peace and quiet over there was almost magical.

 

PS: I decided to do a little research on "my" highway, SR 6. I moved here in December and like to know as much about my town, area and region as I can: geography, history, ecology, geology, climate, weather ....

Turns out, it's the 3rd longest in the state (not counting US Rts 1 and 95), and runs 207 mi from Quebec to New Brunswick, the only highway in the state that runs border to border. (The sled trail near my apartment -- 82 -- also runs border to border.) It's always an interesting thought to me that my home is surrounded by Canada on 3 sides -- W, N and E. That western border in particular looks pretty wild ...

Here's the wiki article.

"State Route 6 is part of Maine's system of numbered state highways, running from the Quebec border in Sandy Bay Township, to the New Brunswick border in Vanceboro. At just over 207 miles (333 km) in length, it is the third-longest state highway in Maine .... SR 6 is the only highway in the state to both begin and end at the Canada–United States border. Much of the route, particularly towards its western and extreme eastern ends, runs through very isolated parts of the state."

 

Pics dammit!,

 

Sh!t.. he's already sleeping.

 

Ha! I was up for hours longer, but I treated myself to an evening offline (earlier than normal). I've been working on editing a few videos (one of which I'll post somewhere on this forum), and was just screen and chair fatigued. So, I took a hot bath (I almost never take baths -- showers for me -- but that was luxurious) and did some reading in a book -- a book! Damn, I almost forgot that reading material is not just on the internet! The book is about one of my ancestors -- Jim Bridger. Will be posting a thread about him (and other 'mountain men') eventually.

Ok, here's three teaser pics from one of the videos about my Monday walk, mentioned above. It's screen capture, so quality as an image will be poor. This is a side road off of SR 6 looking N right at the tail end of the blizzard. (Snow continued for another 3 hours, but the brunt of it was finished.) This road appears to have been plowed earlier, but more snow had fallen. The snow plow piles to the side were over head high in places, the result of plowing after multiple storms since mid-December.

And keep in mind: we're only about 400' above sea level here. This ain't mountains. Yet I see the same kind of forests and climate here that I used to see in the Rockies at 10,000' - 11,000'.



After I left the side road and got back on SR 6 going NE, this 3-plow Cat (one front, one middle, one right side) came along and shoveled out the side road. He had cleared SR 6 earlier; I had to get out of his way then. This was him coming back after plowing the side road. The driver waved. For the most part, they're good guys ... as long as you stay out of their way.

 

That's awesome. We got almost no snow here; 1 or 2 dustings, iirc.

 

Next Tuesday and Wednesday, marking mid-March (and still winter until March 21, spring equinox), we're in line for our third nor'easter of the season. My meteorologist colleague says it's likely to be another monster. He predicts at least 1'. I'm smack in the middle of the "blizzard" zone (dark blue), but it's still too early to predict it's exact track.

But you guys down south on the east coast, from east TN (@Dennis Adams) to Boston are in for it, too, especially from DC north.

 

Bring it on bitches... I'm ready !!!