Stone's Ongoing Meteorological Predictions and Informational Whatnot

Hey @Stone, thought you might find this interesting. @Bushman5 you might like to see it too.

BC is about to be hit with a massive wind system ( so large it reaches from Hawaii to Terrace BC), followed by up to 200cm of accumulated snow (at elevation) over 4-5 days.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/n...ler-comox-port-alberni-abbotsford-2018/93567/

 

Thanks for posting that, @Reno Lewis . I've got it open in a tab, and will read it more carefully after work today, and discuss it a bit with my meteorology colleague, and maybe offer a few thoughts. My neurons still aren't firing fast enough to parse it this morning. Where's my coffee?

It'll be interesting to watch it play out over the next week -- although sounds like quite the experience for you on the island. Hey, pack up your gear and head up in the mountains: it'll be a great test for your survival skills!

I have one question for now about this statement. "... parts of the province expected to receive the most snow on Earth over the next five days."

I'm not sure exactly what "the most snow on Earth" is referring to. Surely not total depth, nor would I expect 100 cm to be an all time record for all of Earth. Maybe the most snow that any place on Earth will be receiving during those five days?

 

So, I sent the link to my weather friend, along with my question about "the most snow on Earth". He's monitoring our weather today (light snow here), thus was at his computer rather than out on his land. (He lives off the grid in a solar-powered, partially underground (berm-ed) house that he and his wife built; they grow most of their own food. He's 70 this year, and carries sugar maple logs over acres to his house like they're kindling.)

Anyway, here's what he wrote.

"Actually, that's a very reasonable assertion since that part of the world from southeast Alaska through British Columbia to Washington consistently has the highest snow totals for any year for the whole globe above a certain elevation. And with a huge low pressure system stuck over the Gulf of Alaska for the next five days, they could easily receive the most snow of any place on Earth! It's mainly a matter of geography and air circulation over that part of the world; they always hit the snow jackpot every winter."

 

Freezing drizzle all day.

 

Oddly enough, pretty much the same here today (Sunday, Feb 11): yesterday saw a "dusting" of new powder (4" on top of a 1 - 2' base), just enough to make ground travel by the gray squirrels tough. ( I watched one that I call Harvey -- or was that Leroy? -- in the woods just beyond the backyard trying to do its normal traverse across the edge having more trouble than normal; it needed snowshoes.) This afternoon, we'll see freezing rain (plain rain closer to the coast which is 2 hours from here).

It's a good day to stay in the studio and work more on my video series (which some on this forum will be invited to watch) ...

 

Here's ABC's well-done article on what's happening today.

This is not merely interesting to those of us experiencing it -- it puts our weather into a larger continental context -- but for those of us who study and teach about abrupt, extreme, chaotic, violent climate change (from a perspective of the geo-sciences and Earth system sciences grounded in the complexity sciences), it's another example of "welcome to the future".

This is only the beginning. It's going to get way stranger from here. May you live in interesting times.

 

Crazy weather

 

Was almost 70 here Thursday.

Been no higher than 24 since Saturday morning.

Will be upper 60s on Wednesday, then will dive again for next weekend.

 

Was 70 here at 7 this morning.

Was in the 30s before noon.

Temp has dropped almost 40 degrees in 12 hours. Most of that happened in just two or three hours.

Also has been raining all day. Hopefully that stops before the temp drops any more.
Ground temps are too warm for roads to ice over, but power lines and tree branches will catch it for sure.

 

Actually, just looked at today’s high and low so far at TUL airport, over 40 degree swing.

High was 70, low (so far) is 28 just since midnight.

Wind is blowing and it is cloudy, so the temperature won’t drop out much more than where it is now most likely.

 

It was 78 today, the hottest February 20th since 1930.

 

It hit about 65 in northern Ohio

 

Figured you'd be interested in this @Stone. Just had this appear over my house a few minutes ago.

First time I've ever seen mammatus clouds in person. I have about 100 more photos to go through.

 

Haha, awesome!

 

Those are stunningly beautiful, and powerful. A signal of how powerful nature is.

I've seen pics of them before, and even some real ones from a distance, but never seen anything like that so up close.

 

East coast... BOHICA

 

We are supposed to get 6"+ snow early next week. Looks like good "cuddling" weather.

 

Bomb-o-genesis. Bigga badda boom.
____

<from story at link>

The storm has the potential to be a historic, crippling event for southern New England. With major coastal flooding, destructive winds and torrents of rain followed by a plastering of heavy, wet snow, the damage will be widespread and significant. Power outages will likely be numerous and lengthy.

A satellite photo shows a nor'easter over New England on March 1, 2018.​

The nor'easter will not have a quick exit, instead blocked by a large area of high pressure over Greenland. Combine a very slow moving storm with the highest astronomical tides of the month and you have the recipe for major coastal destruction.

From midnight to 6 a.m. Friday, rain is expected to arrive from south to north, starting as snow in western Massachusetts.

The storm will become an absolute monster southeast of Nantucket on Friday and only slowly pull away farther to the southeast on Saturday. There will be a large and powerful wind field, extending out several hundred miles from the storm's center.

Cape Cod and the Islands, as well as Cape Ann, are at greatest risk for widespread, damaging winds, ranging as high as 55-80 mph Friday and Saturday. The rest of eastern Massachusetts will see winds gusting 35-55 mph, enough to cause tree and property damage and cause some power outages.

The Massachusetts Emergency Management Agency director has urged residents in vulnerable coastal communities to evacuate, saying the powerful nor'easter is likely to destroy homes.

"It will be dangerous to remain in the homes," MEMA director Kurt Schwartz said. "Not only may rescue not be possible, but homes will be subject to significant structural damage. We expect to lose homes during this storm. If you're in one of those areas, you need to get out."

 

Huh. Guess I haven’t been paying attention. Hopefully the greenhouse will be safe. No snow predicted for us.

 

The weather station here said that there are 2 low pressure fronts that are traveling from west to east. One is in the Great Lakes region and the other is some what south. As they travel east and then north as they near the coast they will merge and become a Nor'easter with heavy rain turning to snow accompanied be very strong winds.

Hey Stone, it is time to batten down the hatches.