Stone's Ongoing Meteorological Predictions and Informational Whatnot

We are supposed to get 5" of snow on Sunday.

We have no snow left, the rivers are breaking up and it was 60F a couple weeks ago. Winters over in Fargo.

Winter was a joke this year.

 

Changed the oil, gased her up, checked the tires... even put a fresh coat of wax on the shoot... I think I'm ready. Maybe I should spray the auger down with WD-40???

 

Fluid film.

Spray it with fluid film.

 

Thanks, never heard of it but there is a good hardware store about a mile from my work and I will look for it during my lunch.

 

Batten the hatches! Wax the shoots! Grease the augers! Get the snowshoes ready!

One more time, here we go again!

Ours here won't arrive til Tuesday, cranking over night into Wednesday. My friend is still calling for at least 1'

Going to walk to the grocery tmrw Monday, for essentials, including eggs and vodka for the shoot.

Or is it the auger?

Dunno. I'll figure it out ...

 

Ahhh the drama of the 'modern' social media age... I wonder what my boy will tell his children? I often heard my parents tell of walking to school, uphill both ways For me... the school bus had snow chains, there were no delays or closures, we went.

 

Predicted totals for my area have been updated. 12 - 20.

 

I just got a snow-boner. God damn I miss a snowy winter.

 

Just winter in Maine to get your snow fix.

I've been here since winter 2010-11.
That year, down south near Portland, we got 8' plus.





Then came a couple of light years, intersperced with larger packs, depending on where in the state one was.

This was Jan or Feb, 2012, on the Wesserunsett R near Skowhegan.



... with the biggest in 14-15. I was on the mid coast then, near Rockland, on a peninsula called Owl's Head jutting into open Atlantic. Box car snowstorms, and another 8' plus year. I never saw sea water from breakers freeze on the shore rocks until then.





I missed winter '15-16 (traveling out of state to take a break from winter), which was one of the warmest on record.

This winter, we're on track for somewhere around 5 - 6' total.





Could be more if we get more box car storms in March and April.

Why so much snow for us and so little west of here, including Chicago (which got no snow this year, if I understand correctly)? Because of abnormal (way abnormal) heating in the Arctic, even in winter, the polar vortex (cyclone normally at the north pole during winter) slides off into either Siberia (some winters so it's warm here) or Canada -- Nunavut, Manitoba, Ontario -- and the jet brings frigid Arctic air right to our door step. Match that up with a lot of moisture riding up here on a funky, meandering, southward then northward bending polar jet = nor'easter with heavy snow -- like Tuesday Wednesday.

And on top of that, summers and autumn are to die for (except for the ticks, which could make one die --- Lyme).



Life on the edge. I love it here.

 

If you study the snow pattern in Maine, it is a three to four year cycle. It is quite interesting. And somewhat predictable. Somewhat, sometimes nature throws a 12 6 when you thought a changeup was coming.

 

Interesting. I'll ask my meteorologist friend more about that cycle. He's been here over 30 years doing weather, so he may be able to add more to it.

Speaking of, here's a snippet of his daily forecast talking about the storm that will begin for us up here by late afternoon tomorrow.

"The intensity of the strengthening storm will cause very strong N to NE winds to pick up by tomorrow afternoon and cause a lot of blowing and drifting to occur as the heavy snow lasts through most of tomorrow night. Those strong NE winds will also be pulling some relatively milder air into our region during the course of the storm though temperatures won’t quite make freezing by Wednesday morning and insure that most places away from the immediate coast see all snow from this system. Of course that means that most locations across our region will see somewhere between one and two feet with drifts a few feet higher than that. In addition, the strong winds [gusts predicted to 50 mph] and the heavy, increasingly wet snow will probably lead to tree damage and power outages and there will probably be some coastal flooding from storm surge at high tide. All in all, this will be a storm to take seriously; make preparations today and then stay home from tomorrow afternoon through most of Wednesday!"

Toward that end, I'm leaving now to get a few goodies from the grocery. Then, I'm hunkered down for the next couple of days. Good time to get some work done --- long as the power stays on (fortunately, I've got a good battery on the macbook)

 

And I just got to this part, the tail end of his forecast. This does not please me, so ready for spring am I.

"It still looks as though the West will be seeing a major warming trend during the next week or so, but it also looks as though we won’t be seeing any of it for at least the next two weeks as the polar vortex remains stuck over northeast Canada, even as it weakens. But that position will still tend to keep Canadian air coming our way right through much of the rest of March while the big spring warm up remains confined to the West. It’s also not clear how long before we start to see some of that warming enter New England as long as a big blocking high remains stuck over eastern Siberia while the polar vortex center remains stuck over northeast Canada."

 

Just returned from walking the dog. I was a nice day here, cold but sunny ant not much wind. Looking at the sky it's hard to believe a big storm is coming. It's supposed to start here after midnight.

 

Update from Bangor Daily News. March 14, 2017.
_____

“For Portland, we’re looking at 12 to 18 inches. Interior areas, including Sanford, Hollis, will see 18 to 24 inches,” meteorologist Tom Hawley of the National Weather Service Gray office said Tuesday morning.

The winds are expected to cause drifts and could cause whiteout conditions during the heaviest snowfall, expected Tuesday afternoon.

“Winds will increase,” Hawley said. “We’re predicting 30 mph winds, with gusts up to 40 or 45 along the coast. We could see some 50 mph winds right at the water’s edge.”

 

My latest update to friends on another forum.

6:15 pm. Snow is much heavier, wind is MUCH stronger. Snow is mostly horizontal now, except near the building where the wind flowing over the roof creates eddies. Not total white out, but visibility is down by more than 50%. I can safely say I've never seen a storm this intense (I'm new to this far north in Maine, and the last two were both at night), and it's only just begun; not full fury yet. I expect that around midnight.

Holy mother of winter, I'm glad to have a warm home with strong walls and roof tonight.

 

Just a flurry, nothing to see here
It is getting a tad heavy and wet isn't it?

 

My friend down in Skowhegan -- Mainer through and through -- calls these "a dusting".

Yes, heavy and wet. Add the wind, and there's real potential here for power outage. Since I live in an all-electric apartment**, including stove, I cooked extra food and stored about 4 liters of boiled hot water in camp thermos bottles. (** We're actually a "net zero" building -- it generates more electricity with HUGE solar panels on the roof than we use, even if it comes back to us through the grid because there are no batteries.)

Here's 30 sec, shot through my open window about 6 pm after beginning at noon and building all afternoon. I expect it'll reach peak intensity somewhere around midnight to 3 am, then taper off slowly tomorrow morning. Could even be some freezing rain at the end, which would be a total freaking mess.

By the way, this -- and all my vids -- are shot with a tiny, aging, low end Sony pocket cam that was a hand-me-down from a kind person. A better one is high on my list (probably a refurbed ipod or ipad).

Any way, you'll get the idea. The sound of the wind really tells the story. It's probably a little better not in full screen mode.

 

From NWS Binghamton NY

 

Poor bastards in Leonardsville...

 

Looks like we're getting off light.

The wind has died down significantly for the last half hour. Wondering if it will build again ....