Stone's Ongoing Meteorological Predictions and Informational Whatnot

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by OutdoorsFamilyMan, Dec 16, 2016.

  1. OutdoorsFamilyMan

    OutdoorsFamilyMan Member

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    One of the things I really enjoyed on the old forum was the weather predictions, charts, and graphs posted by a member named Nem...
    Stone seems to be a pretty knowledgeable guy about such stuff....maybe he will use this thread to discuss weather and storms as they happen (or are about to happen):D
     
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  2. Mountainmistwanderer

    Mountainmistwanderer Member

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    He retired all that to his offspring......
     
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  3. OKcherokee

    OKcherokee Member

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    I enjoyed it also.
     
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  4. Expat

    Expat Expat™ Knives Staff Member

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    Well neither Frankie nor Stone warned me I would wake up to an inch of ice on everything this morning so both of you fail!
     
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  5. OKcherokee

    OKcherokee Member

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    Map has changed since this.

    Right now the hottest part of OK is 70, coldest is 8.
     

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  6. Expat

    Expat Expat™ Knives Staff Member

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    It 36 in the midwest. Going to rain all day until 6 pm. Then it's going down to -3 and going to snow. In other words, youre screwed
     
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  7. OKcherokee

    OKcherokee Member

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    -3, brrrr. You can keep it.

    High temp today was 63 just after midnight.
    Before midnight tonight it will likely be single digits, close to 50 degree change in 24 hours.

    Go home weather, you're drunk!

    At least the snow we get will be super dry and most likely blow away before accumulating.
     
  8. olderguy

    olderguy Member

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    -4 and about 10" of snow here-I'm getting to old for this crap haha
     
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  9. Bushman5

    Bushman5 Member

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    -8 Celsius here in Vancouver BC.
     
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  10. ManOfSteel

    ManOfSteel Member

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    Only 3" here today but it was enough to drop the plow on the commercial properties we take care of. I pray for a foot every weekend.. Snow money is better than no money!
     
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  11. koolaidnd

    koolaidnd Member

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    @Stone we have a nasty storm blowing through the upper dakotas tonight.

    Will it be the snow/icepoclyose?
     
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  12. OKcherokee

    OKcherokee Member

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    Will be almost 70 on Christmas Day here, and possible thunderstorms.
     
  13. Stone

    Stone Member

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    How did I miss this thread for 8 days? :confused:

    Thanks for the tag, Koolaid.

    Haven't read all of it yet -- took a walk in my backwoods this afternoon around sunset after getting my third new knife (in two days) in the mail (more on that coming soon in a thread near you -- it's already the best knife I've ever owned, me thinks, and that after just 3.5 hours --- I can't put it down) -- dinner is next.

    After din din, I'll get back here and read, offer a comment.

    Here tonight? We got a new dusting of wet snow today : about 1" on top of 7" (that's drifted to about 17" in spots, just over the top of my boots -- rain south of I-95 and on the coast. Tomorrow -- Christmas day -- the temps will top out early in the mid-20's, then plummet to 0 F or below tmw night. I love Maine winters ... and summers, and springs, and falls.

    Oh, and here was this morning's weather map from my associate and meteorology coach. That big cloud mass over the east coast is what gave us precip today; it's now off the coast.

    You can also see Koolaid's snopocalypse developing in the west ....

    upload_2016-12-24_19-15-20.png
     
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  14. koolaidnd

    koolaidnd Member

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    Sounds like the freezing rain starts late tonight and will run all day Christmas turning into snow. It's going to be a **** show when the wind picks up.

    We have our bug out bags packed, the secondary emergency box and cat carrier ready to go. We'll leave our apartment and head across town to my parents place if we lose power for more then a couple hours.
     
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  15. Stone

    Stone Member

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    Dang, this sounds serious. I read last night about a western storm -- actually, two I guess. Good luck, buddy.
     
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  16. OKcherokee

    OKcherokee Member

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    Be safe, watch out for all the idiots out there if you end up driving somewhere.
     
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  17. Stone

    Stone Member

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    Dec 28. We're in for another 10 - 12" of new snow during the next 24 hours or so, on top of the 8" or so (what's left after a warm day) that we have now. (Top is getting pretty crunchy.)

    Here's a snippet of my friend's long range projections/speculations for mid-Maine into next week. He calls them projections rather than predictions because for reasons that we can explain at great length, due to a phenom called sensitivity to initial conditions (AKA, the butterfly effect), accurate predictions about weather systems cannot be made past about 4 - 5 days max, and most times, that's really 2 - 3 days depending on confidence level you seek.

    But we have some idea about possibilities for 7 - 10 days out in broad strokes (no temp or precip precision).

    Heads up to those in the eastern Great Lakes region and east of there to New England.

    Then he adds his jet stream map and analysis. [The jet stream -- a river of fast moving air (W to E] up near the stratosphere [300 mb, or millibar pressure level] -- strongly influences storm patterns, and whether storms are fast moving or get stuck, blocked by blocking highs or lows, staying in place for days.] Same thing has happened this year as in recent past. The polar cyclone, AKA polar vortex (a media term, not meteorological) has slipped off the N pole again (due to severely abnormal heating in the Arctic and wicked bad summer Arctic sea ice melting followed by very late re-icing -- note: this is not an intuitive phenom, but requires reasoning based in non-equilibrium thermodynamics and fluid dynamics). I usually slips either into Siberia or northern Canada. This year, it's both. Right now, it's parked over NE Nunavut (east of Hudson Bay), and is causing the polar jet (stream) to loop far south into the northern US.

    The jet map is wind speeds up high, near the stratosphere. Pinks and blues are slower; greens, yellow and orange faster. (Scale is on the bottom left; numbers are knots/hr.) To orient yourself, find a recognizable state in a light blue or green region first. In this map, AR, TN, MS, AL and GA stand out to me.

    upload_2016-12-28_11-6-26.png

     
    Last edited: Dec 28, 2016
  18. koolaidnd

    koolaidnd Member

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    Yay! Winter.
     
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  19. Stone

    Stone Member

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    Before I moved here from Oregon in 2010 (summer), I wasn't sure if I was going to like Maine winters.

    Now, I love them. I missed last year because I was visiting friends in FL (and hated the weather there).

    Winters here keep me real in terms of outdoor activities (great time to practice bushcraft skills, like fire!), and -- importantly -- they make me appreciate summers 10X more than I used to. :D
     
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  20. Stone

    Stone Member

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    Wednesday, 12/29, noon. Our winter's first nor'easter has begun with flurries. Expecting some pretty intense weather for the next 24 hours. 1' to 1.5' expected. Can't wait to walk in the woods with full day pack later today as it picks up.

    Snippet from my friend's daily forecast.

    Here's the jet map for today. Note the polar cyclone down over N central Canada pushing the polar jet far into the US. When it hits the US east coast, it bends back north, pushing the storm from NC's coast right up to us tonight.

    upload_2016-12-29_12-48-0.png
     
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